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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.