Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.